Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.066280 2.188867 2.317882 2.464289 2.626450 2.801285 3.005017
2025-08-17 1.868194 2.034708 2.218294 2.437484 2.694455 2.989250 3.357627
2025-08-24 1.738327 1.927903 2.143465 2.409955 2.735249 3.125942 3.641290
2025-08-31 1.654785 1.862124 2.103860 2.411481 2.800146 3.286192 3.959847
2025-09-07 1.593536 1.815575 2.080093 2.425373 2.875356 3.459515 4.308490
2025-09-14 1.519172 1.747113 2.023151 2.390621 2.881374 3.537987 4.530752
2025-09-21 1.453171 1.684533 1.968664 2.353404 2.878397 3.600135 4.731940
2025-09-28 1.391906 1.624373 1.913280 2.310252 2.862195 3.639469 4.899543
2025-10-05 1.369334 1.611627 1.917331 2.345361 2.955239 3.842077 5.346679
2025-10-12 1.349442 1.600885 1.922691 2.381449 3.050872 4.055839 5.842477
2025-10-19 1.328150 1.586996 1.922608 2.409052 3.134897 4.258353 6.350209
2025-10-26 1.294060 1.554630 1.895800 2.396597 3.156859 4.362226 6.692412
2025-11-02 1.260179 1.521837 1.867703 2.381715 3.175487 4.464833 7.056002
2025-11-09 1.224878 1.485880 1.833732 2.356319 3.175616 4.535693 7.368577
2025-11-16 1.191739 1.451642 1.800658 2.330268 3.172372 4.599431 7.676948
2025-11-23 1.169620 1.431616 1.786597 2.331712 3.213307 4.745414 8.196871
2025-11-30 1.152544 1.417842 1.780666 2.344859 3.273981 4.933488 8.859512
2025-12-07 1.122430 1.384996 1.746114 2.311966 3.254256 4.966308 9.146035
2025-12-14 1.093192 1.352563 1.711083 2.276721 3.228164 4.984007 9.398028
2025-12-21 1.063726 1.319057 1.673469 2.235832 3.189790 4.973734 9.573490
2025-12-28 1.057101 1.317516 1.682435 2.269102 3.283910 5.241542 10.608153
2026-01-04 1.050997 1.316423 1.691849 2.303282 3.381865 5.529892 11.818085
2026-01-11 1.042927 1.312206 1.696326 2.329414 3.466748 5.801419 13.097134